Patriots Playoff Losses as Favorites Under Bill Belichick

For nearly two decades, the New England Patriots under head coach Bill Belichick were the NFL’s ultimate standard of postseason excellence. Between 2001 and 2019, the Patriots appeared in nine Super Bowls, winning six of them. Belichick’s teams were methodically prepared, ruthlessly efficient, and often entered the postseason as heavy favorites.

However, no dynasty is invincible. Even during New England’s reign, there were notable playoff losses — particularly surprising because they came when the Patriots were favored to win. These defeats stand out not just because of their rarity, but because they sharply contrast with the Belichick-Patriot mythos of postseason inevitability.

Let’s break down the most significant playoff losses where the Patriots were betting favorites under Belichick, including odds, dates, and final scores.

1. 2006 AFC Championship Game: Patriots vs. Colts

• Date: January 21, 2007

• Odds: Patriots -3

• Final Score: Colts 38, Patriots 34

New England led 21–3 early in the second quarter and looked ready to steamroll their way to another Super Bowl. But Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts staged one of the greatest comebacks in NFL history. The Patriots, 3-point favorites on the road, ultimately fell 38–34, unable to stop the Colts' final drive. This loss was gut-wrenching, as New England squandered a two-touchdown halftime lead.

2. 2010 AFC Divisional Round: Patriots vs. Jets

• Date: January 16, 2011

• Odds: Patriots -9

• Final Score: Jets 28, Patriots 21

After finishing 14–2 in the regular season and blowing out the Jets 45–3 in a December game, the Patriots entered the Divisional Round as heavy 9-point favorites. Rex Ryan's Jets, however, flipped the script. They pressured Tom Brady relentlessly and built a double-digit lead in the second half. The 28–21 final didn't fully capture how thoroughly New York outplayed New England. It remains one of the biggest playoff upsets in the Belichick era based on the spread.

3. 2012 AFC Championship Game: Patriots vs. Ravens

• Date: January 20, 2013

• Odds: Patriots -8

• Final Score: Ravens 28, Patriots 13

The Patriots were expected to return to the Super Bowl after another dominant regular season. Oddsmakers installed them as 8-point favorites over the Ravens. New England led 13–7 at halftime, but Joe Flacco and the Ravens erupted after intermission, outscoring the Patriots 21–0 in the second half. New England's offense collapsed, with Brady throwing two costly interceptions. It was a stunning defeat, made even more shocking by the large betting line.

4. 2015 AFC Championship Game: Patriots vs. Broncos

• Date: January 24, 2016

• Odds: Patriots -3

• Final Score: Broncos 20, Patriots 18

Facing Peyton Manning for likely the last time, the Patriots were slight 3-point favorites on the road in Denver. The game was a defensive battle, with New England struggling to protect Brady against Von Miller and the Broncos’ fearsome pass rush. Despite a late comeback attempt, the Patriots fell short on a failed two-point conversion. The loss marked another playoff upset as favorites and denied Brady and Belichick a shot at a repeat Super Bowl title.

5. 2019 AFC Wild Card Round: Patriots vs. Titans

• Date: January 4, 2020

• Odds: Patriots -5

• Final Score: Titans 20, Patriots 13

The 2019 Patriots stumbled into the playoffs after losing their regular-season finale to the Dolphins. Nevertheless, they were 5-point favorites at home against the Tennessee Titans. The Patriots’ offense, however, was anemic, and Derrick Henry ran wild. In what would be Tom Brady’s final game as a Patriot, Tennessee controlled the tempo and sealed the win with a Logan Ryan pick-six in the closing seconds. It was an unceremonious end to the dynasty’s greatest era.

A Rare Trend: Belichick's Losses as a Favorite

While it’s easy to remember Belichick’s playoff triumphs — the Snow Bowl, the Rams upset in Super Bowl XXXVI, the 28–3 comeback against Atlanta — these losses as favorites reveal an under-discussed aspect of his postseason record.

In total, under Belichick, the Patriots lost five playoff games as favorites between 2001 and 2019:

In total, the Patriots were a combined 28-point favorite across these five games — and went 0–5 straight up and 0–5 against the spread.

It's worth noting how rare this trend was considering how many playoff games New England played during the Belichick era.

From 2001 to 2019, the Patriots made the playoffs 17 times, played in 41 playoff games, and only suffered these five losses as favorites. It shows both how dominant they were most of the time — and how jarring these upsets felt when they happened.

Why Did These Upsets Happen?

Several themes emerge:

• Offensive Line Struggles: In losses like the 2015 AFC Championship vs. Denver, Brady was battered by the Broncos' pass rush.

• Turnover Problems: The Ravens in 2012 and the Titans in 2019 capitalized on rare Brady interceptions.

• Inability to Adjust: Belichick’s defensive plans, often brilliant, were sometimes stymied by mobile quarterbacks or powerful running games (e.g., Derrick Henry in 2019).

• Aging Roster: In later years, particularly 2019, the Patriots simply lacked the firepower offensively to match younger, more dynamic teams.

Importantly, none of these losses erased the Patriots’ dynasty — but they serve as reminders that even the greatest run into moments where preparation, experience, and pedigree are not enough.

The New England Patriots under Bill Belichick were the closest thing the modern NFL has seen to a dynasty. Playoff losses as betting favorites were few and far between, but when they occurred, they left an imprint.

In a sport of slim margins, even the most well-oiled machine can falter — whether it’s a second-half collapse against the Colts, an unexpected shellacking by the Jets, or Derrick Henry trampling through Foxborough. These upsets remind us that football greatness is measured not just by rings, but by resilience after defeat.

For the Patriots and Belichick, even their rare playoff failures only further emphasized how extraordinary their run of dominance truly was.